I have written many times before about the seemingly never ending Brexit process and all of the political firsts that have occurred as a result.
The last time I used the headline of this article, I was speaking of the second General Election we had experienced in just 18 months when Theresa May decided it was a good idea to try and strengthen her majority (we all know how that worked out!).
After more than 2 years of negotiation and pontification, we now arrive at yet another delay to the Brexit process – this time until 31st October 2019 – Halloween – as if the media needed any more martial to work with when coming up with headlines about the shambolic handling of the Brexit process.
Strangely, the politicians are arguing over which of the ‘middle’ options should be chosen with Theresa May’s deal looking too hard for some and too soft for others. When you speak to the general public however, they tend to prefer one of the two extremes – leave without a deal or don’t leave at all.
How this political and societal divide will resolve itself will no doubt make for some fascinating reading and watching over the coming months. It feels as if BBC News is like an episode of House of Cards or The West Wing. While it is mighty entertaining – I just wish it wasn’t the fate of our country being dramatised.
Questions will now turn to what impact this will have on markets and the economy. Given the mute response this week when the delay was announced, it seems that markets had largely priced in the continuation of the current ‘stalemate’ position for some time to come.
What is starting to be felt though is the impact of uncertainty and there is a palpable feeling of frustration when you talk to business owners. While we all knew that the Brexit process would take some time, now that we seem to be in a never ending cycle of delay, the uncertainty seems to be taking its toll on the decision making ability of businesses and with good reason.
At this point almost all of the options remain on the table. A no-deal Brexit, a second referendum, no Brexit at all, a general election – it would take a very brave man indeed to rule any of these options out. In fact, I think we have a bigger range of outcomes now than we did before the referendum and that is not good for business or the economy.
At this stage, I do hope that a solution can be found quickly (as I’m sure the rest of the voting public do too). It seems reasonable to assume that Theresa May will have to go at some point in the near future and rumours abound that this moment could come shortly after the Easter break.
The big question is whether the resulting leadership contest will also then trigger a new General Election which really would make for fascinating watching. On the other hand, perhaps the Conservatives now know better than to try and secure a mandate for a new leader!
However things pan out – rest assured – we will be watching developments closely, keeping you informed of our views (and those of the markets) along the way. You better get comfy – I feel we have a way to go on this ride yet!