With just under a week to go before the results of the referendum, the most recent polls suggest that the contest between the No and Yes camps seems too close to call. Given the very real prospect of Scotland leaving the Union, many investors are concerned about how this will impact on them. Senior Paraplanner, Kevin Herron has written a series of articles about some of the potential issues. Today he looks at currency and regulation.
Currency
Probably the most important concern would be what currency the independent Scotland would use – despite the unequivocal rejection of the concept of a shared currency, the Yes campaign are keen to retain Sterling (either as a formal fiscal union, or as a new currency that is more informally linked to Sterling).
While this has a number of repercussions on a macroeconomic level, it will introduce a level of currency risk for investors. It is likely that any separation of currency will cause a great deal of volatility in both currencies in the short to medium term, which will greatly impact those who receive income in one currency but pay their bills in another.
Consider the example of a Scottish pensioner is receiving a pension of £100 per month which is the equivalent of £80 “McDollars” – if currency movements mean that this pension is now only worth £70 “McDollars”, how will this affect their ability to meet their daily living expenses.
One option could be that Scotland joins the EU and adopts the euro, but the recent comments from the President of European Commission, Jose Manual Barroso, suggest that this is highly unlikely.
Regulation and Governance
While recent reports seem to suggest that the Bank of England and Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) would retain certain elements of control if a formal fiscal union is agreed, it is clear that an independent Scotland would need to set up it’s own system of financial regulation.
If Scotland was unable to obtain membership of the European Union, how would this impact on the ability of people to obtain cross border financial advice? European legislation permits financial advisers to apply in their home state for authorisation to provide services in other EU countries.
As an independent country that is not a member of the EU, Scotland would have the same legal status as countries such as Norway and Iceland, and while it seems unlikely, it could mean that an adviser registered in England or Wales could no longer advise clients living in Scotland (and vice versa). It is probable that firms would be able to apply for registration in both territories, but the additional costs of two registrations, along with the difficulties of dealing with two regulators with different rules, may see many companies deciding to avoid these difficulties entirely.
Current investment wrappers such as NISA’s are eligible to UK residents only, so in the event of independence, would not be available to Scottish residents. While it is likely that similar types of investments would be introduced for Scottish investors, any provider looking to remain active in both jurisdictions is going to have to spend a great deal of time and money in marketing different products for each country, and ensuring that their existing customers are properly segmented as Scottish and English residents.