So it seems that we have yet another general election, just 18 or so months after the last one! It seems only yesterday that we were voting on the UK leaving the EU.
The assumption, of course, is that we will end up with a larger Conservative majority than we currently have and this assumption would seem to be pretty sound based on the polls conducted to date.
If the last few months have taught us anything however, it is that the polls cannot always be relied upon. In a world where the UK is leaving the EU and Donald Trump occupies the White House (both events which commentators felt were laughable when first proposed), it would take a brave man to say that a Conservative win at the election is a sure thing.
In terms of the markets, once again, it seems that the preferred option will be the expected Conservative win and this will be largely priced in already. Anything other than this expected outcome however could see some more significant market reaction.
I would caution expending too much energy worrying about this however. If the aforementioned surprise events have taught us anything, it is that, even when we do have political surprises and upsets, the predicted market turmoil very often does not materialise and in the above two cases, quite the opposite has been true.
The only thing that is for sure is that we live in fascinating political times and I will be watching the election results with interest come the 8th June.
The Buckingham Gate Investment Committee stands ready to hold an extraordinary investment review meeting if the circumstances dictate.
