So I caught it. The invisible and deadly virus that I have been terrified of for the past 6 months. Despite us not really seeing anyone for the first three months of lockdown, despite all the hand washing and alcohol gel, despite the face masks and social distancing, I still managed somehow to pick up the virus.
Getting Ready For Round 2
It was almost inevitable, but we are now dealing with ‘lockdown’ round 2. Just as things were beginning to return to some vague kind of normality, the virus has staged its resurgence and more restrictive measures are being introduced.
A Message From Matt – 2nd September 2020
As we enter September, it strikes me that we are now 2/3rd’s of the way through the year and about to enter the final 4 months of what has been a rather tumultuous 2020 to say the least.
The Importance of Data
It can’t be underestimated how important good data is. In the age of fake news, social media feeds and media speculation, it can be hard to know what to believe, but good, accurate data, can make it easier to see through the noise.
You will have to excuse the rather tenuous link here, but two things this week have made me reflect on the importance of data.
A Message From Matt – 29th June 2020
As it becomes clear that Coronavirus is not going away any time soon, we move from the initial panic phase of the crisis into the management and maintenance phase.
If we accept that the Coronavirus pandemic is going to be a marathon and not a sprint, you could use the analogy that we have started a little too fast, running the first 5 miles in record time, but that might come back to bite us later as we struggle to settle into a more consistent pace for the rest of what is still a very long race ahead.
A Message From Matt – 12th June 2020
I had planned to write a somewhat jubilant update today as stock markets around the world have recovered, in many cases to now show positive gains during 2020. Some markets have set new all time highs in the past few days! When you consider what the world has been through over the past few months, that really is quite extraordinary.
Your Post-Lockdown Life
As we enter the month of June, we find ourselves in an interesting dichotomy.
The UK is beginning to relax lockdown measures as other countries are having to reimpose them, given that they are seeing a resurgence in the virus.
A Message From Matt – 7th May 2020
So, it seems that this weekend will see at least some, subtle relaxation of the current lockdown measures and Boris Johnson’s announcement on Sunday will signal the start of the slow and gradual return to our ‘new normal’ – whatever that means.
I wanted to share some thoughts about what that might mean for markets and for us as a business.
Markets seem to have been fairly resilient thus far given the scale of the crisis we are dealing with. Investors who held their nerve early on in the crisis have now been rewarded with a significant recovery in investment values, although markets clearly still have a way to go to reach their previous highs.
The markets seem to be buoyed by the gradual lifting of restrictions across the world and let’s hope that this process can continue without causing a ‘second spike’ in cases.
I imagine this recovery will be one of winners and losers as different sectors of the economy get back to normal at a different pace. Of course some businesses are thriving in this environment and these companies generally won’t receive the same level of press attention compared to those who are sadly struggling, but just remember that they are out there, quietly working away, getting the economy back on its feet.
On the business front, negotiations are ongoing on our new office space and we have every intention of returning to the central London hub we love so much, as soon as it is safe and viable to do so.
With this said, we will be in no immediate rush given how well our current operation is working and so we will most likely adopt a ‘wait and see’ approach once restrictions are lifted and we will take client feedback into account to determine the timing of the full reopening of the office.
What the last few months have shown us is how generally successful online meetings can be and we will certainly retain this as an option for people who are not comfortable travelling into London in the first instance or for those who simply wish to save themselves a trip. We have also found that video conferencing is a great way to connect with clients to discuss those ‘ad hoc’ issues where there is some benefit in a face-to-face meeting, but perhaps which don’t justify a trip into London.
In the interim, we may also offer home visits as an alternative to a meeting in the office for a limited period where this is the preferred option.
I am delighted to report that Buckingham Gate has enjoyed a very good start to the year and I consider myself extremely lucky to be running a business that can operate relatively normally under these circumstances. I am incredibly proud of how the team have adapted to their new working environment and I am pleased to report that everyone is safe and well.
Finally, I am grateful for the way that you, our clients have responded to the current situation. We have received many messages of thanks for the support that the team have been providing to clients during this challenging time and these are gratefully received and appreciated.
As always, if you need any support, please do not hesitate to contact us.
A Message From Matt Smith – 9th April 2020
As we head into the long Easter weekend, I wanted to provide you with a further update on the markets and provide some more of my views on the future.
Many articles I have been reading recently have been talking about the ‘new normal’. Despite how quickly us human beings adapt to new situations, I am a little concerned that we are referring to this current state of affairs as ‘normal’.
I do believe that there will be a ‘new normal’ after the worst of the virus is behind us, but I certainly hope that this is not it.
However it is interesting to note just how comfortable we have become with our new way of living after just a few weeks. After the initial panic and pandemonium, we tend to calm down very quickly, rationalise what’s going on and then deal with the problem and begin implementing solutions. It is easy to see this phenomenon in action across all sorts of different business sectors and industries.
In our own business, we have transitioned the entire team to a home working environment, pivoted our usual monthly seminar programme online, presented to over 600 people and implemented new estate planning solutions via video link and phone calls, all in the last 3 weeks. I never could have imagined how quickly all of this could have been achieved, but necessity is a powerful thing.
I take great comfort from this. The fact that we can build a 500-bed hospital in the Excel Centre in 9 days, the fact that the Mercedes Formula 1 Team can build 1000 assisted breathing devices in a day and the fact that we can come together and applaud our NHS heroes at 8pm on a weekly basis just shows what is really possible when we strip away our self-imposed bureaucracy and red tape and just focus on the task at hand.
I am also pleased to report that we do seem to be seeing some tentative signs that the market is calming down slightly. I’m sure there will be some more surprises to come, but the markets have been a little bit less choppy this week and let’s hope that continues.
I wanted to end on a positive note and share a video with you that touched me a few days back. These times are undoubtedly tough, but there are positives to be taken out of all of this as well. I will leave you with this short clip to hopefully lift your spirits as we go into the long weekend: #WeRemember
Comfort Reading For Uncomfortable Times
We are currently living through some interesting and unprecedented times and it can be difficult to gain perspective when we are in the middle of a crisis.
We have curated some articles and resources below that should allow for a more rational view of current events and this content will hopefully provide some reassurance for those of us who are struggling with the daily news feed at the moment.
Curated Resources
1. S&P 500 Crash Recovery Timings
This document shows the performance of the S&P 500 since 1926 and, most importantly, the relative length of ‘bull’ (positive) and ‘bear’ (negative) markets. The good news is that bull markets tend to last much longer and generate much greater returns when compared to the relatively short-lived bear markets. To support this, you can also download our very own ‘How The Market Works’ document here.
2. FTSE All Share Crash Recovery Timings
The theme here is the same as above. The key thing to note here is the shaded areas, which show the times of crisis or recession. Note how the stock market recovery often starts while the crisis is in full swing. For example, the 2nd World War lasted from 1939 to 1945, but the stock market recovery began in the middle of 1940 – almost 5 years before the end of the war. This same pattern can also be observed during the financial crisis in 2008/09.
3. Fidelity document on missing the best days in the market.
We have shared this document many times before, but the message holds true. If you miss the best few days in the market, even over a long period, you significantly damage your total returns. If we look back 15 years from now, it’s not hard to imagine many of the best days being in 2020 given the volatility of the market.
In fact, yesterday (24th March 2020) is now on record as the 2nd best day in the history of the FTSE 100. This just goes to show that the best days often come on the back of the worst.
Curated Articles
We have summarised some of the best new (and old) articles about investing in times of crisis.
Stock Market performance in previous outbreaks
50 Previous ‘Crash’ Events that the market has ignored
Recommended Reading
If you are looking for something more substantial to fill a day at home, we would strongly recommend the following book:
Factfulness – By Hans Rosling
We have suggested this before, but this has to be our number one recommendation for those wanting to gain perspective on seemingly extreme events and the way that the media report on them. An essential read for every human being on the planet.
The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate Estate Planning, Tax Planning, Will Writing, Trust Advice, or some elements of Automatic Enrolment.
This communication is for general information only and is not intended to be individual advice. It represents our understanding of Law and HM Revenue & Customs’ practice. You are recommended to seek competent professional advice before taking any action.
This communication is for general information only and is not intended to be individual advice. It represents our understanding of Law and HM Revenue & Customs’ practice. You are recommended to seek competent professional advice before taking any action.
Please note that investments can fall as well as rise and any income generated by an investment can fluctuate over time.
